legend

The Tide Log

The predictions this chart has made, and how they scored

Every other district reports what someone else disclosed. This one reports on the site itself. Each dated claim it has made is recorded here in the words it was first published in, together with the test that will settle it — and once the settling data arrives in a refresh, the verdict is written automatically, including the misses.

The scorecard

1 / 1

graded claims correct, with 4 still open · next to settle by 2026-11-14

Each claim is recorded once, with the test that settles it, and is never edited afterwards. Grading happens automatically when a refresh brings in the settling data. Misses stay on the page.

Open claims awaiting

Each of these has a date attached. None can be quietly revised in the meantime: the ledger is written once and only its verdict field changes.

made 2026-08-02 · /currents

open

Fewer than 12 companies will appear in a GIC filing for the first time in the twelve months to 2027-08-02.

The disclosure pulse is cooling: 14 first appearances in the last three years against 36 in the three before — a run rate near 4.7 a year.

Settled by GIC's own SEC filings, after 2027-08-02. Until then it stays open — and stays exactly as written.

made 2026-08-02 · /draw

open

The FY2027 Net Investment Returns Contribution will be within 10% of S$30.5bn — the figure implied by continuing the series' own trailing five-year pace.

Trailing 5y CAGR of the published NIRC series (6.9%) applied to FY2027's S$28.5bn.

Settled by the Singapore Budget statement, expected February 2027. Until then it stays open — and stays exactly as written.

made 2026-08-02 · /raingauge

open

GIC's next reported 20-year annualised real return (FY2026/27) will fall between 2.1% and 4.1%.

Arithmetic: one year entering a 20-year window and one leaving cannot move the annualised figure beyond this band across plausible endpoint returns.

Settled by GIC's report, expected July 2027. Until then it stays open — and stays exactly as written.

made 2026-09-04 · /openbook

open

Temasek's Form 13F covering 2026-09-30 will be filed by 2026-11-14.

Statute: Form 13F is due within 45 days of quarter end. This is a legal deadline, not a forecast — the interest is in whether the deadline is met.

Settled by SEC EDGAR, by 2026-11-14. Until then it stays open — and stays exactly as written.

Settled claims

made 2026-08-02 · /openbook

hit

Temasek's Form 13F covering 2026-06-30 will be filed by 2026-08-14.

Statute: Form 13F is due within 45 days of quarter end. This is a legal deadline, not a forecast — the interest is in whether the deadline is met.

Actual: filed 2026-08-07, 177 positions — 7 days inside the deadline graded 2026-09-04 · evidence 2026-08-07

Late. Graded on 2026-09-05, but the settling filing was on disk from 2026-08-07. The delay was a defect in the grader: it read the projection live, and the refresh that ingested Q2 also rolled the projection on to Q3, so the grader looked for a quarter that did not exist yet. Fixed in v0.31 by freezing each claim's parameters at creation.

Why keep score at all

Publishing a prediction costs nothing if nobody records the outcome. The discipline this district enforces is the same one the rest of the chart applies to GIC: a claim is only worth as much as the evidence that can falsify it. If the arithmetic here is wrong, this page is where it will say so.

Ledger: predictions.json. Grading logic: scripts/grade-predictions.mjs, run at the end of every refresh.